GETTING A GRIP ON THE EGYPTIAN DRAMA

  
     
     OH, TO BE AN EGYPTOLOGIST -- I know, I'm using the term "Egyptologist" here in not quite the right context. I am aware that an Egyptologist is someone with expert knowledge of the Pyramids,  the Pharaohs, Egyptian antiquities, Egypt's place in the beginnings of civilization, and of ancient Egyptian history, including Biblical. In short, the Egyptologist's field is not exactly current events.
     My offbeat use of the term is an attempt to express the wish that I knew a lot more about Egypt, now that I and the whole world -- including Egyptologists, I'm sure -- are caught up in watching events and developments in that nation with fascination and, sadly, with growing feelings of horror. (Egyptologists will, actually, be very concerned about whether Egyptian antiquities in museums are being adequately protected through this upheaval.)
     What we are witnessing is a revolution, a brave attempt to kick out the rule-with-an-iron-fist President Hosni Mubarak and his cronies. He views himself, it seems, as some modern, all-powerful Pharaoh -- but his subjects are telling him:  "Let the Egyptian people go, stop your oppression and corruption, let them have democracy and  freedom, honesty and justice."
     But he is not going easily.
     In view of these events I have decided to improve my knowledge of Egypt, and have looked up a few facts concerning the country of today, with particular attention to geographical and other connections between Egypt and my own bailiwick, which happens to be the Greater Vancouver area of Canada. I also will draw conclusions from my research.
     What I have found may be of interest to those who might want to improve their ability to cope with the Egypt story.


     THE CLOSEST I HAVE EVER BEEN TO EGYPT, I'm sorry to confess, is 2,380 kilometres (1,479 miles) from it, and that was when I visited Vienna in 2002. While there I suppose I'd never have given a thought to Egypt, except that I met an Egyptian, a young chap from Cairo, who was very fluent in English, as well as in German.
     He was a street vendor of what we in Canada usually call hot dogs, and he sold me a very good one. (To me, anything Germanic in that line is A1.)  In a pleasant conversation with this vendor, after he told me he was from Cairo I asked why he had come to Vienna. His reply was that he wanted to see it because he knew it had a long history as a crossroads-of-the-world, and was one of the most beautiful of cities. He also had a yen to travel, see the world. Besides, he was doing better in Vienna than he could in Cairo.
     At the time I thought to myself, wow, he has come quite a long way from home. But, Mr. Mubarak's misdeeds and their aftermath have made me aware of how unconsidered that thought was, because, really, Cairo is not any further away from Vienna than, say, some town in western Ontario is from Vancouver. (Vienna, incidentally, is, by air, 8,415 kilometres, or 5,290 miles, from Vancouver.)
     My vendor, to be sure, is only one of many thousands of Egyptians who have left their home country for other lands. Some 50,000 to 60,000 have come to Canada -- and today are of course concerned about the welfare of their relatives back home.

     THAT'S A SMALL BIT OF PERSPECTIVE,  SO NOW HERE'S A BIG PIECE, one, I'd say, of greater significance. Our province of British Columbia occupies a territory of 365,948 square miles, and has a population approaching 5,000,000. Egypt, in comparison, has a size of 386,662 square miles, a little more than 20,000 square miles larger than B.C. -- and is occupied by a population of somewhere between 80 and 83 million people, depending on whose estimate you take.  Try to imagine B.C. with more than 80,000,000 people!
     Yes, B.C. has a much different geography than Egypt, we have too many mountainous regions to permit vast population expansion of Egyptian dimensions (try as our governments might to compress more and more people into some of our limited-space metropolitan areas).
     Egypt, says the 2011 World Almanac, is largely desolate and barren, although it has some hills and mountains in its east and along the Nile. So, lots of open, flat land, seemingly plenty of room for a large population. I think its population size, though, is a strong contributing factor to that nation's current problems. Of course, that's the case for much of the rest of the world as well -- too many people to support. (That's another topic, but a terribly important one, and it is one I intend to explore in detail in this space soon.)  
     The Egyptian nation and people rank on the world's list of nations at 103rd place in Gross Domestic Product, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Canada is in 11th place. (I could not find comparable figures for B.C., so have had to rely on figures for all Canada.)
     Egypt's per capita personal income is estimated between $3,000 and $6,000 (30-40 per cent of the people being at or below the poverty line). Canada's per capita income is estimated to be around $35,000 to $38,000.
     I report these figures with no intention of trying to put down Egypt or boast about Canada. I use them to illustrate the dire economic plight of the Egyptian people. World food prices are fast rising, the world oil price is high and probably going higher, incomes don't show many signs of improving. So I ask: How can anyone wonder why Egyptians of all ranks are rebelling against a corrupt, cruel, authoritarian leader?




     BUT THERE'S A MUCH LARGER QUESTION THAN EGYPT. The geopolitical experts and analysts are, quite naturally, homing in on all the ins-and-outs of Egyptian politics, the demands of the people for democracy and a better economic life. They speculate on how the struggle there is going to turn out, how significant it is to Middle East peace. Also under review is the issue of whether Egypt represents another example of upheaval that threatens to expand in the Muslim world. Has the Middle East become a tinder box or not? Look at Tunisia and Yemen. Will we soon see ever more nations getting into the fray, with perhaps the U.S., maybe along with Israel, invading Egypt to "save" it? Where do Russia and China stand, what might they do? Questions abound.
     All of these are important angles, in particular the need for the settling of a permanent, workable peace in the Middle East. (A U.S.-Israel military expedition into Egypt, beyond doubt, would put Middle East peace on ice probably for years. Other complications that would burst forth from such an action, in fact, would be immense and more than dangerous. I want to believe it could not possibly happen.)


     I DO THINK, THOUGH, THAT A BIGGER QUESTION faces the entire world, not only Egypt -- and that is the issue of economic circumstances which seem to be working against the average person. The rising prices of oil and food are hurting everyone, especially those in less advantaged countries.
     Similarly, people lose when any of their tax payments are used up on government corruption and other wasteful spending, often for military purposes, the commission of which crimes are alleged against Egypt's Mubarak -- and also against some other leaders around the world.
     Thus, it is not unreasonable to ask:  How many other countries are there like Egypt (and, earlier, as noted, Tunisia and Yemen, and in Europe, milder displays in Greece, Britain and Ireland)? Will we see other nations with significant numbers of citizens who have reached such a stage of frustration and anger  that they, too, will soon take to the streets in serious mass protest?


     ALL OF THIS IS CLOSELY TIED TO GENERAL INFLATION, steady, unremitting inflation. So persistent is it, in fact, that it seems almost to be fixed government policy, never mind what oil cartels and Big Oil, or multi-national corporations, may do on their own to control markets. Governments appear to think that it's relatively harmless to just print more money to cover more deficits.
     The idea the Canadian government and most other governments have of trying to ensure that annual inflation is kept at "tolerable" levels of, say, two-or-so percent, has morphed into something more drastic.
     That is, into a condition in which governments, in effect, are showing that it is definite government policy to have an inflation rate that is no lower than that target rate. With the result that, if you are a saver, each dollar you saved last Dec. 31 will be worth 98 or fewer cents in purchasing power (happy New Year) next Dec. 31. And so on, year after year. (By the way, I don't believe government inflation figures; I think the true rate is quite a bit higher than we're told.)
     This all just dandy. You know, I'd like to see some mathematician-chartered account work out the total of compound inflation that has occurred, at least in the western world, since 1945, when wartime wage, price and profit controls more or less ended, and real economic development began its upward climb.  
     I'd think that figure would be an absolute fright. And if inflation keeps going the way it has (some experts say it will actually grow large, and fast), it will not end happily -- anywhere in the world.
     Will the Egyptian drama even begin to awaken thoughts of such possibilities, or of what might be done about them, in the minds of anyone among the several thousand key people worldwide who have charge of the fate of humankind politically, economically, militarily, culturally?
     Let us pray. (And you can be sure that I will have future observations and facts to outline as we discover how those prayers are working, or have worked.)